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Syria on the Edge

Paul Koshik - 5/11/2011

Revolutions are breaking out in the Arab world – Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Libya, Yemen, and now Syria.

At the time when the whole world was watching the revolution in Egypt, crown president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, stated in his interview to The Wall Street Journal that such situation would never take place in his country, because in contrast to the aged Egyptian leader and other old dictators, he pursued a reasonable and wise policy, protected from revolutions.

The interview was published on January, 31th. On March, 15th, Syria faced first disturbances and it happened only a month and a half after the interview.

Firstly, al-Assad announced from the parliament tribune that the riots were inspired by US and Israeli special services through their agents. Then, he promised democratic reforms and canceled the emergency regime that had been functioning for almost 50 years. When these measures didn’t bring any results – he began clean-up operations in mutinous towns using heavy armor and thousands of soldiers.

These clean-up operations are carried out according to the well-tested scheme that was used by Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, in the past. Firstly, they deprive a mutinous town of electricity, telephony and partly the water.

Secondly, a preparatory firing using 120 mm guns is launched. Then, the forces under the command of General Maher al-Assad, president’s younger brother, come to town from every quarter. The town is split into several isolated parts. Tanks take the lead. They are followed by special mission units. They open gun-fire on any number of people. The soldiers pass streets and houses, the guns are fired inside the apartments. Special services officers conduct arrests. Hundreds of people are taken into custody. No one knows what is happening in Syria in the places of riots suppression. Correspondents are not allowed to go there. The mobile communication doesn’t work. Internet either.

Reasons

“Al-Assad family is a typical criminal clan” – former war correspondent and Israeli diplomat, Alon Pinkas, writes in the "Maariv" newspaper. “They are not so witty as a TV clan The Sopranos, but have an irreproachable style like The Corleone. However, for 40 years already, they have been owning the thing, every most powerful clan can’t even dream about – their own country”. Family clans Kim Jong-il and Gaddafi also have their own countries. But the main difference is that until recently al-Assad family had had a politically stable country.

Syria under al-Assad leadership represents a unique mixture of mafia clan and totalitarian socialist regime like in USSR. The Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party (Baath) strongly resembles one of Marxist parties: the same strict vertical from elementary cells to regional committees and national command; the same implicit subordination of the junior to the senior and loyalty to the leader in the religious way; the same party’s interference in all social and economic spheres of the country. As a result, we have the same inevitable consequences: sluggish economy, which main sectors are still regulated by the country, terrible corruption.

What comes next?

It is strange that not only al-Assad himself, but other countries in the world also don’t want this regime to collapse, even if they don’t admit it.

The USA doesn’t want it because it is Syria from which the weapons and gunmen arrive to Iraq. Moreover, absent al-Assad, there would be no one to appeal to in order to control these flows.

Iran doesn’t want it because Syria is its only allay in the region. Through Syria Iran “feeds” "Hezbollah" and Hamas" helping them in their opposition to Israel.

Israel doesn’t want it, because al-Assad’s Syria is its old enemy, BUT this enemy knows that it won’t survive if it loses another war with Israel. That’s why the boundary with Syria is the most secure Israeli boundary.

Russia doesn’t want any changes either. For Russia al-Assad’s Syria is the last allay in the Arab world, fathomless weapon market and a place, where the presence of Moscow was always welcomed. It was only the crisis of 2008 that kept Russian military men from deploying Russian naval base in Syria, though the talks about the base and also about transferring the ships of the Black Sea Fleet there were held rather seriously.

So, whatever al-Assad is doing with his people now trying to save his regime, probably, the foreign intervention isn’t expected.