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Caution: Adequate Option For Israel when Dealing with Upheavals in the Arab world

Yoav J. Tenembaum - 5/12/2011

There have been criticisms leveled at Israel for not showing enthusiasm for the latest political upheavals in the Arab world.

Israel is accused of being conservative in its attitude and displaying reticence in its policies towards events engulfing Arab countries, from Tunisia to Bahrain.

Two prominent critics of Israel's attitude and policies have been the New York Times Columnist, Tom Friedman and Israel's former foreign minister and historian, Professor Shlomo Ben Ami.

The criticisms advanced in this regard are misplaced.

To begin with, geography may explain why Israel's reaction to the latest political upheavals in the Arab world may have been rather different than that of many other countries. Israel, in contrast to other countries in the international system, lives in the area itself where these events have taken place. For Israelis, this is not an abstract political matter, but rather a consequential process, affecting directly their security. Proximity shapes attitudes no less than concepts.

True, Israeli politicians have repeatedly stated that a democratic Arab world would be beneficial for peace and stability in the area. This assumes a given situation, which has hardly materialized, indeed, which may be far from coming true in the near future, of stable liberal democracies in the Arab countries.

The fact that an authoritarian leader has been overthrown does not necessarily mean that a democratic alternative would replace it.

In Egypt, so far, we have witnessed a military junta that has done its best to satisfy the basic instincts of some sector of the population by distancing itself from Israel and using former president Housni Mubarak as a political punching ball. In Egypt, there is no democracy in the offing, but only a junta which rules by popular instincts.

There is hardly a place in the Middle East or North Africa that can be said to be close to anything remotely familiar to a democratic regime.

If at all, the latest events in the Arab world have vindicated Israel's cautious stance. Yes, Israel has adopted a cautious position. Israeli decision-makers are skeptical, but they are not hostile to a truly democratic change. After all, statistically, as history has shown so far, two democratic countries have very rarely engaged in war. This is precisely what Israeli politicians have had in mind when contending that a democratic Arab world would contribute to peace and stability in the region.

This is not what we are witnessing right now in North Africa and the Middle East.

Caution is an adequate option in revolutionary times, if by caution one means a detached, skeptical and judicious attitude. After all, revolutionary times have also brought about destruction and suffering. Witness the political effects of the French Revolution in Europe; witness the political effects of Communist revolutions. What determines whether a revolutionary period is beneficial or not is not the intention of the honorable by-stander, but that of the revolutionary himself.

Mistakenly, the criticism against Israel tends to focus on Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, ignoring the wide political consensus that prevails among Israeli politicians on this issue. All wish to see a truly democratic Arab world, but all are equally cautious about the prospects of it coming about in the near future. Indeed, all are skeptical of the way change has been handled in some parts of the region, as in Egypt, for example.

To be sure, it is difficult for many Israelis to recognize that events may be shaped by forces that are beyond their control.

If only Israel did something it hasn't done, if only its leaders were to say something they haven't said, wouldn't reality change for the better as a result? Well, unfortunately, on many occasions, it just does not matter what Israel says or does.

The same logic applies regarding the political upheavals in the Arab world. Anything said or done by Israel could hardly help. A cautious and skeptical stance is what is required of Israeli leaders right now. This is what the Israeli government and political opposition have done so far. They should be commended for that.