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Libya’s misery – an end or a beginning?

Subhan Choudhury - 8/26/2011

Is this a humanitarian war?

Muammar Gadhaffi will go down - may be this week, may be next week. But why does he have to face this? What is the prize for dragging him down from power? Is this a humanitarian war? Is it to liberate the Libyans? Or is it for Libya's 1.6 million barrels per day output of high quality crude oil?

The war in Libya can be termed as a war of disinformation. The western biased media have manipulated the situation from the beginning till now. For instance, the bombings by NATO fighters were not only carried out on military targets, but also hit civilian houses, hospitals, schools and hotels. So there is definitely something more than the usual humanitarian reasons behind the war.

Straight thing straight - Muammar Gadhaffi is no saint and not an adorable leader. He is a dictator and one of the worst human rights violator of recent times. He regularly executed dissidents through public hangings and rebroadcast it on television. His agents blew up a Pan Am flight, killing over 270 people and assassinated at least 25 critics including state figures around the world in the 1980s. He funded several terrorist organizations including Irish Republican Army till mid 1990s.

Gadhaffi’s negatives however do not mean that Libyans needed freedom. This may come as a shock to many but - Libya is actually considered to be the Switzerland of Africa and the lifestyle of it’s middle-class is better than most of the other African nations. Libya has highest literacy rate in North Africa - 82% of its population can read and write. The schools and hospitals are free for people. Condition for women is much better than all Arab countries and they can were what they want. Social service allows unemployed citizens to receive cash handouts. All the cash in overseas accounts thought to be in the royal family’s name turned out to be Libyan State owned money. Why this war than? Why this cry and bloodshed for democracy?

Ill fated democracy ahead

Libya faces enormous test in restructuring political landscape. The current rebels, who would be termed as freedom fighters in future, will most likely not be able to do a good job after Gadhaffi’s fall. Gadhaffi has already destabilized the key functions and wiped out some state institutions. He destroyed backbone of all political parties during his 42 years regime. It means, reformers will have to begin from the scratch. Security and reconstruction will be top agendas. Expectations of people those gave everything they had and fought with arms for liberty and freedom will need to be met in a quick time. There are many extremist groups and Islamists taking part in the war. They will eventually want their cut. Things will fall apart for the future government than. In a nut shall - there is too much disorganization in Libya to make for a good future.

On the other hand, NATO will not want to leave the National Transitional Council soon. It has put a lot of money into this war already, so it will crave its way in holding charge for a while. The US spent over $1 billion in Libya so far. The heads of U.S. foreign policy most certainly calculated the return on investment - future oil contracts through favorable government. Hardcore Pro-Libyans will oppose this; hence more unrest is likely.

With or without Gaddafi, Libyan people's idea of ruling body is based on groups and tribes, which elects their own head, and then those heads together form national counsel. Their sense of freedom is different than that of the people in most of the democratic countries in North America, Europe and even Asia; hence there will be chaos all over.

China’s interest

China will have its say in Libya’s future for sure. Before the war started, Libya was China's 11th largest source of imports and 75 Chinese firms invested over $500 billions for infrastructure projects including oil, railways, and telecoms in the country. There were 36,000 Chinese in Libya working on 50 projects before NATO invasion. After the war ends, China will want contracts in rebuilding the infrastructures and oil fields. It will surely fund political figures running in the first election after Gaddafi's fall.

Inadvertent consequences will hunt proceeding

The problem with such wars, upraising or movement, whatever this is called, is that the inadvertent consequences are generally very severe. The chiefs of the rebel groups are ex-politicians, mostly corrupt; and highly trained military officers those were with Gaddafi before. They changed side after realizing the time has come to gain out of the upraising. Very few look for national harmony and overall growth. Personal gain will eclipse national gain surely as Libyans do not have the history of national identity to their side to keep them together. Importantly, rebels have had their share of blood in the meantime. There is no guarantee that a unified national government will get chance to lead the way. Rebel fictions will always want to hunt opposition down - hence more unrest, more bloodshed. To make things worst, al-Qaeda got its hands on some of the weapons that went missing from military barracks. There is a possibility that some of these will be used against Libya in future.

Limited optimism?

The U.S. support to Islamist rebels in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union; and to Saddam haters in Iraq resulted into long-term chaos and disarray in both the countries. The Libya invasion was different than that of Iraq and Afghanistan in several aspects - It was completed via active participation of NATO, ground soldiers were not deployed initially and had support of the U.N. Security Council and a number of Arab League leaders. An optimist would therefore forecast an unlike future for Libya. The situation does not support much optimism though.