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India will expand global geostrategic clout by 2022

Abhirup Bhunia - 12/8/2011

India has set a 2022 deadline to amplify its global strategic footprint. A lot has already been happening in that direction, and much is planned for the future.

The Indian Armed Forces is gearing up for a strategic reorientation to boost capability in landing in, taking off and deploying military in the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) and other regions that are of key importance to India. “We have to be able to reach wherever out interests lie,” Indian Air Force Chief, Air Chief Marshal Norman Anil Kumar Browne said at the annual press conference recently.

With India acquiring strategic natural reserves overseas and partaking in global conflict resolutions, India is already on the go. Among other things, expansion plans include acquiring the capability to serve by air, Indian interests irrespective of time, location and place.

The military is now keen on equipping itself with deployable hardware capable of covering long distances swiftly. Browne, while unveiling the aspirational rejig recently, said that the experience of Libya and other countries have made necessary the ability to reach wherever India’s interests lie.

But wary of “fighting other people’s wars” Browne explained that India will seek to expand its strategic reach rather than trying to be “expeditionary”.

While defending the domestic air space remains the top priority and the Forces’ primary task, global interconnectedness has mandated a relook at strategic interests abroad. India, as it is evident now, is not interested in merely regional power struggles. It is looking at a greater international role and presence. India’s overseas interests include Russia and Africa.

The ambitious expansion plans will also focus on airlifting, search operations and rescue missions.

But, the overarching influence of China continues to figure prominently in India’s military and geostrategic deliberations.

Chinese hostility in the IOR and South China Sea has been noted by experts as being a worrisome development for neighboring India. Reports that China is building a dam on the Brahmaputra River adds to the security quagmire.

While India is a rising power, it continues to be seen as a far weaker power than China. Experts have warned that India should not try to overreach.

Dealing with China, and in particular managing Beijing’s assertiveness, is certain to be an enduring challenge to Indian foreign policy for the coming decades. Experts have pointed out that the Indian establishment should definitely take care of its regional interest and ensure that Chinese military and naval power don’t end up being the dominating power. It is, however, hardly advisable for India to start setting up naval bases to play catch up. Apart from being hard to defend, they can incite neighboring countries and add to misapprehensions. In addition, foreign bases are liable to be seen as an excess when it comes to emerging economies that need resources to be allocated for essential needs closer home.

Generally, India is strategically looking at a bigger worldwide role while working towards resolving sticky regional issues. At a public event some time back, India’s ex-foreign secretary, Nirupama Rao, said that recent years have seen a qualitative shift in its ties with Japan with defence dialogue and security cooperation emerging as the important aspects. With Russia and France too, India’s defence cooperation has steadily improved, she stated.

Currently, India’s international influence is low, compared to some of the bigger powers like the U.S. and China. But, one of the most prominent Indian presences abroad is that of its presence in Tajikistan. The presence of an Indian Air Base at Farhor/Ayni where engineers from India have laid a runway and built hangars is a trailblazer. India has deployed several MiG-17 helicopters, a MiG-29 fleet, and Army personnel in the country. India has also provided counter insurgency military training to Tajikistan. While this is a step towards acquiring strategic reach over energy-rich Central Asia, it is believed that India’s presence in Tajikistan has a lot to do with influencing political proceedings inside Afghanistan.

For India, the Gulf of Aden is a crucial sea lane of communication and trade, which, in its interests, should be secured. The same applies for the Straits of Malacca in the Far East.

In India, already an energy deficient country and billed to be one of the highest energy consumers in the coming decades, energy security is of prime concern to the government.

Although, China’s String of Pearls strategy has been the talking point in defence circles for quite some time now, vital commentary on the issue has talked about the Dragon’s eventual goal of being energy secure. India is playing catch-up.

ONGC-V (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Videsh), the foreign arm of India’s state-owned energy giant, is prospecting for oil in the Sakhalin Islands off Russia and the Vietnamese Coast in South China Sea, a region that’s fraught with Chinese aggressiveness.

In addition to these, India has so far maintained goodwill in its neighbourhood. For example, post the 2004 tsunami it sent relief and flew regular sorties to the Indonesian Aceh. Apparently in an attempt to contest Chinese influence, India is rebuilding the Trincomalee Port in Sri Lanka too. Interestingly, China is building the Colombo and Hambantota ports there. Reports suggest the possibility of a Chinese naval base in Sri Lanka as part of its String of Pearls strategy.

When it comes to presence in conflict-ridden regions, like the Middle East in this year’s spring, India has put up a decent show. Its navy sent ships to Libya and evacuated Indian residents there. The Indian Navy also evacuated its citizens from Lebanon during the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.

In terms of international cooperation, India has not only been an active participant but also spearheaded some of the security-related activities. The Indian Navy and Air Force are involved in establishing a counter-piracy presence in the Seychelles and Maldives. In the horn of Africa too, India has actively contributed in maintaining the sanctity of sea lanes, including being on counter-piracy patrols for two years off the East Coast of Africa and the Gulf of Aden.

In the coming years, India’s strategic footprint is poised to broaden internationally especially in the second rung of states such as Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Vietnam.