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Civil- Military Struggle in Pakistan: Regime Change Likely

Sudhanshu Tripathi - 1/24/2012

The on-going cold war relation between the Government and the Army in Pakistan has reached a new height yesterday, with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and Army General Ashfaq Kayani drifting further apart.

As key functionaries, both P.M. Gilani and President Asif Ali Zardari have been severely indicted by Pakistan’s Supreme Court which is locked in a separate battle with the government, yet this stand-off between the two, will ultimately consolidate the predominant army against the government to which it has always twirled around its (Army) fingers. The Court’s ire is particularly with PM Gilani to whom it declared a “dishonest” person having violated his constitutional oath by deliberately ignoring the courts’ directive to the government with regard to the reopening by the Swiss government of the alleged cases of money laundering against President Zardari, thereby causing the civil-military differences to deepen.

The Army, as usual, since the very beginning has never cared about the sanctity of elected governments and has always wielded the upper hand. A head-on-collision between the two has been Pakistan’s history of troubled civilian–military relations, as the Army has developed a habit of openly ignoring the civilian authority. Because corrupt and incompetent politicians have been taking over the reign since independence who always discouraged democratic institution building and have not had the courage to face the Army Generals head-on and call their bluff. No doubt, the failures of the civilian governments, most of them have had a very short tenure, have been a prominent issue for the countrymen because of their miserly performance and involvement in rampant corruption. Most of them were, therefore, discredited by the people during past six decades.

The war of words between the Pakistan People’s Party government and the Pakistan Army which erupted on Wednesday, because the government recently sacked retired Lt General Naeem Khalid Lodhi, said to be close to Gen. Kayani, as Defence Secretary as he approached to the Supreme Court, without seeking prior permission from the government, challenging civilian authority over operational matters of the Army and the I.S.I.. The government had no option but to issue a show-cause notice to Mr. Lodhi and subsequently, had to dismiss him from service and because that was the only suitable action taken by any government. But the Army, considering this step as an offence, issued stern warning to the government of “grievous consequences”. Not only that, the Army, continuing with its age-old practice of insubordination, has refused to cooperate with the newly appointed Defence Secretary.

Against this backdrop, the continuing standoff between the two since the past week, prompted analysts to comment about possible coup in the country. Reinforcing these fears, the Army appointed a new Brigadier to assume responsibility of the infamous 111 Brigade stationed in Rawalpindi, mostly characterized as the coup-making unit because it has its proven skill and competence in capturing important and sensitive places during a military takeover. Some Pakistani analysts are of the view that PM Gilani’s aggressive posture with the military is a well- planned scheme, to instigate the Army to stage a coup, so that he may go down as shaheed, although unlikely.

In fact the Supreme Court’s intervention has put considerable pressure on the PPP government which takes pride in its troubled history with Army for getting martyred instead of facing trial into court for massive corruption charges. The opponents of the PPP, therefore, do not want the martyrdom to them by the hands of Army which must exercise restraint.

But this confrontation cannot last for long. Either one or two of the key figures involved, may have to quit. Another likely scenario be a change of the present political set up by a different one or holding fresh elections prior to its fixed schedule in 2013. But, the prevailing instability in Pakistan does not auger well because many diverse and contentious issues and interests, internal as well as external, are enmeshed in the religio-political-military governing system of Pakistan. The instability in Pakistan may be favourable to the Army because remaining political forces will not be able to unite to force the Army to remain confined to their barracks. Further, as the Army has always been preferred to the hardliners and also to America, the destiny of Pakistan lies in the hands of the Army, which has all along been ready to capture political power.