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Iran: Anticipating Spring

Dame Chkatroski - 2/8/2012

Regarding the situation in Iran and its region the most anxious countries are Israel and Turkey.

The cabinet of president Erdogan, and all serious Turkish political analysts have already comprehended the seriousness of matters in Iran.

Turkey would have never been a significant and major economic force if it hadn’t been for the Islamic Revolution of Khomeini in Iran.

Turkey gained the best of the Islamic Revolution and emerged as one of the most powerful geopolitical, economic and military strength in the region. It took over the entire role which Iran had had it before the Islamic Revolution.

Nowadays Turkey is aware that if any alteration of the government in Iran occurs that can marginalize Turkey or it shall lose a part of its importance within the international scene.

In Moscow is facing elections and Putin shall win with 68-72% but they are assured that Turkey apart from economic strength and a place for vacation it will not have any geopolitical role in case of fall of the regime in Teheran.

They are familiar with the fact that the influence of Europe and America can be strengthened in Teheran so that Iran shall become a country with the highest economic growth rate and an important security and economic factor of the Middle East and South east but also in the region of former SSSR and the Caucasus.

Probably in Moscow they have started to conduct business simulations so as to keep up with the race altogether with the other countries which aim is to invest within an open and prosperous Iran.

But Moscow has other concerns at his point regarding the situation in Iran.

Georgia is under constant monitoring which can fall apart if Iran is to be attacked while at the same time countries like Azerbaijan shall close some of their old issues in the region if the troubles start.

Azerbaijan’s army has already been monitored due to the increased military number, accelerated arming and purchasing of goods necessary for the army.
It seems that within the region of Abkhazia Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia to Kazakhstan instability is expected only if Iran is attacked by Israel.

Moscow is worried about this situation because it is hard to control the situation on the field, outside borders, and economically to sustain sufficient stability and thereby to maintain its bases in those regions.

Lately there has been movement of the Russian army going on in those regions.
Kremlin is in the middle of a harsh argument with EU, participating in the support of the regime in Syria, and it is facing elections in which Putin is expected to win but there is also a menace of wider destabilization of the southern Russia in the countries that used to be a part of the former SSSR.
Turkey is in a slight panic thus it gives support to the regime of Iran in order not to lead to its decline and loss of the strategic power.

In anticipation of the spring in the Middle East and Caucasus let’s hope that politicians shall overcome themselves and shall not allow any destabilization in the region.

Wider destabilization would mean that conflicts shall not end that quickly and easily but shall last. Iran’s regime knows this very well. Although it prefers to play with our nerves let’s hope that there is still time for the common sense to win.