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Interview with Prof. Safrastyan: "Armenia Must Get Rid Of Its Complex As Russia's Younger Brother"

GP Interviews - 6/17/2005

Prof. Ruben Safrastyan, Ph.D. is a Professor of International Relations at Acharyan University in Yerevan, Armenia. He's also the Director of the Department of Turkish Studies at Institute of Oriental Studies, Armenian National Academy of Sciences. In the past, he served as a Counselor of the Armenian Embassy in Germany and was the Deputy Director of the Department of Political Analysis for the Office of the President of Armenia.

Q: How do you assess the changes that have taken place in Russian-Turkish relations lately?

A: Answering this question, I would like to draw your attention to the geopolitical approaches of Russia. I must say that a number of major documents presenting the country's geopolitical approaches were drafted in Russia during the last years. It should be mentioned that the documents were drafted under the immediate leadership of Vladimir Putin. I mean foreign policy, national security and military concepts. These documents present a number of major approaches of which I would single out the multipolar world outlook. The second major approach is that Russia is regarded as the largest Eurasian state, which will be surrounded by a zone of friendly states. The third major conceptual approach is that Russia is ready to apply nuclear weapon first if its national interests are endangered.

If we regard the mentioned conceptual approaches in the context of our region, we'll see that we are in the epicenter of the realization of these approaches. In particular, if we consider the changes and new phenomena that have been observed in Russian-Turkish relations lately, we'll see that here we can speak about Russia's new geopolitical tendencies, in particular, aimed at creating a zone of friendly or at least not hostile states around it. Russia's policies towards Turkey, in my opinion, pursue this very goal, of course not to turn Turkey into a friendly state of Russia, but to weaken US influence and Turkish links with the West as far as possible and, if possible, to connect Turkey with Russia.

Q: What measures are being taken by Russia to strengthen its geopolitical influence in the region and specifically in the sphere of Russian-Turkish relations?

A: At the current stage Russia, of course, cannot take large-scale measures to strengthen its geopolitical influence, however, Russia is using the vast reserves of natural wealth it possesses to implement its policies, particularly for geopolitical purposes. If we consider Russian-Turkish relations in the context of the "Blue Stream" project, the following will become clear: in fact, besides financial benefits for Russia, it also implies Turkey's closer connection with Russia. So, when the realization of this scheme is completed, Turkey will receive 80% of gas from Russia. At present, about 60-65% of gas entering Turkey is received from Russia.

Interestingly, Turkey, in its turn, has a wish to play a leading role in Russian policies in this sphere. So, it's natural that this prospect should meet quite a stiff opposition of the USA.

Q: What are the other areas where closer Russian-Turkish relations are possible?

A: It is issues connected with arms delivery. Turkey has declared that it is to implement a program of armaments modernization worth over $100 billion within the next few years. Russian diplomacy is making quite serious efforts to ensure Turkey gets part of these arms from Russia. Representatives of relevant circles of Russia and Turkey conducted quite intensive negotiations over this issue recently. No final decisions have been made yet, but there are signs
that Russia will manage to convince Turkey to get at least some of the new arms from Russia. There are even talks that Russian arms are to be manufactured in Turkey and supplied to other countries.

Q: How can the new quality of these relations impact Armenia?

A: The right understanding of Russia's policy is very important for us. It is not an anti-Armenian policy - Russia has repeatedly declared at the highest levels that Armenia and Russia are strategic allies, which is a very important circumstance. I think that our country's political forces should not speculate on these new phenomena in the Russian-Turkish relationship and jump to conclusions about the anti-Armenian orientation of Russian policies. Russia is a big state and has geopolitical and geo-economic interests of its own. In this sense I attach importance to everyday contacts of Armenian and Russian representatives at all levels and in all spheres. Besides, it is necessary that the position of Russia's elite, their ideology should be studied thoroughly and new approaches be elaborated accordingly.The world is changing, and so are the region and Russia, but we still consider ourselves to be a younger brother.

In my opinion, Armenia must get rid of its "younger brother" complex that it developed in relation to Russia.