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Old People in New Times: Post-Elections Lebanon

Manuela Paraipan - 7/5/2005

The Lebanese Interior Minister Hassan Sabaa announced on June 19, 2005 the results of the first Parliamentary elections held in a Lebanon free of the Syrian claws. The alliance led by Saad Hariri, son of slain ex-Premier Rafiq al-Hariri together with the other groups of the opposition have 72 out 128 seats in the Lebanese assembly. Hariri's allies include the Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt whose party took 15 seats, the Lebanese Forces Party of jailed warlord Samir Geagea with 6 seats, and the Qornet Shehwan with 5 seats.

Hezbollah won 14 seats and the moderate Shia of the Amal took 15. The US now hopes that the pro-Western opposition of Hariri together with the 21 MPs' bloc of former Prime Minister Michel Aoun will downplay Hezbollah's plans.

Michel Aoun, once Syria's most vocal critic, struck an unlikely alliance with several candidates known for their ties to Damascus, but he still won the overwhelming support of the Christian community by playing to its fears of marginalisation. He won a stunning victory in the third round, dashing the opposition alliance's goal of achieving at least a two-thirds parliamentary majority.

The EU leaders praised the elections, while emphasizing the need to continue the reform as asked by UN and US. Jeffrey Feltman, the US Ambassador to Lebanon labelled the elections a "milestone on the road to change, and stressed that US is not imposing its principles about democracy on any sovereign state. However, there are rules that the states should take seriously into consideration especially in the aftermath of the 9/11 world.


A daring Hezbollah

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah announced that the Party of God, although put under much international pressure will not disarm. Moreover it will fight against anyone who would try to take away its weapons.

As soon as Hezbolah saw itself on the winners' side, it afforded to launch a coordinated attack on military positions on the Israel-Lebanon border, namely on Shebaa Farms, Golan and also nearby Kiryat Shmona.

The Jewish mass media reported that Hezbollah fired a number of mortar shells on military posts, as infiltrators from the group crossed the border into Israel. Having a democratically elected Parliament the international community and probably many of the Lebanese would have expected to have a disarmed Hezbollah. The irony is that the world got a more confident Hezbollah. The next step of the US and the Euro-3 group (France, Germany and UK) together with the UN will likely be to increase the pressure on the new Parliament to deal with the raising ambitions of Hezbollah.

Nabih Berri, the head of Amal, had committed himself to supporting the "resistance" against Israel and Walid Jumblatt declared that the next government "should ask the Security Council not to apply" that part of Resolution 1559 demanding the disarmament of Hezbollah's armed wing. In this case, either the Lebanese themselves will find a solution to put Hezbollah's militia or resistance into legality or Lebanon might have to choose between having good diplomatically ties with the Occident and having a prosperous Lebanon, or continuing to support Hezbollah's game in the region.


The triumphant return of Nabih Berri

The pro-Western opposition has accepted pro-Syrian Nabih Berri as Speaker of the Parliament, who held previous mandates as a Speaker for 13 years.

He organised the famous Ein El Tineh group as opposite to the pro-Westerner and some would say pro-Saudi group of Hariri and that of Walid Jumblatt. Now that he is the elected Speaker of the new Lebanon, people wonder if there is something indeed new in Lebanon. Considering the fact that the Speaker is the third man in state, the MP's should have thought twice before voting for Berri. Why not bringing a Shia speaker with a clean past, clear vision of the future and more representative for the younger generations of the Shia community?

Few would dispute the fact that Nabih Berri is a sly political player, as is Walid Jumblatt who monopolized the opposition in the detriment of Saad Hariri, Nayla Moawad, Pierre Gemayel and others.

Bringing Berri back into power is like the new Lebanese Parliament invited the Syrian mafia through a Trojan horse. The signs are not very encouraging. However, there is a fact the opposition could not ignore, the Berri-Hezbollah alliance, whether in the South or in Baalbak Hermel swept 80% of the votes. The problem is that you can't choose a speaker without consulting Amal and Hezbollah, the two parties who represent the Shiites in politics. Ignoring the will of the Shia majority who agreed with Berri's return might have caused some serious problems in a country where sectarian feelings still control. Another alternative would have been a deputy from Hezbollah, but Sheikh Nasrallah chosen to support Berri.


General Aoun's role in politics

General Aoun, who failed in his negotiations with Jumblatt, turned to the Druze Talal Arslan and to the leader of the National Liberal Party, Dory Chamoun, for the electoral coalition in the Aley-Baabda district to counter Jumblatt's alliance with Hezbollah, Hariri and Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces. Some even called the Aley-Baabda election as the "mother of all election battles."

The Free Patriotic Movement of Michel Aoun won 21 seats at a time when some thought that his alliance with pro-Syrians politicians would harm the party chances. But once again the General proved he couldn't be left aside. His party was the first one to present a political platform in the elections. A program aiming at reviving Lebanon's lost democracy as a mean to end the confessional system and to end the generalized corruption. If before the elections he has discouraged talk of unseating President Lahoud, recently he suggested that parliament should look for a "honourable exit" for the president.

Nasrallah Sfeir, the Maronite Christian patriarch has come to Lahoud's defence. Analysts say many Christians are nervous about their future as a minority group in a nation dominated by Muslims; if sectarianism will be left aside, then its likely to have sometime in the future a Shia President; simply because the most difficult challenge is to change the Lebanese mentality which so far was guided by the affiliation to a religion or other. The Shia have the advantage of being the largest group in Lebanon.

Jamil Mroue, publisher of the Daily Star newspaper, said that Patriarch's action "is a question of defending the post, not the man sitting in it."

Nayla Moawad, a Maronite and a leading member of Saad Hariri's alliance said about Lahoud: "I don't think he can be president with our vision of a new, modern, clean Lebanon where we have to fight corruption. And he's a symbol of corruption."

Nonetheless, until Lebanon will enter onto a more secure political path, Lahoud will likely keep his position as the President of Lebanon.


The Alliance which is supposed to change Lebanon

The winning alliance of Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt has proposed Fouad Siniora as Prime Minister, a long-time finance minister and one of Hariri's closest aides and President Lahoud agreed with their choice. Hopefully President Lahoud will be willing to cooperate with the new Prime Minister and will not transform Lebanon into a war fare zone, as he did with the former PM Rafiq al-Hariri.

The challenges of the new Parliament are great and not easy to accomplish. Disarming Hezbollah and the Palestinian militias is the peak of the iceberg, yet a peak difficult to break.

Not even this time, the usual theories dotted with some real facts stop. Some see in Occident's pressure as means to arrive at Israel's aims of defeating Syria through Hezbollah and of transforming Lebanon into a permanent home for the Palestinians refugees. If the Palestinians will settle in Lebanon, either by naturalizing them or not, they will spoil the balance of powers kept with so much effort during the years. Now the Christians are a minority and the 2000 electoral law that further marginalized the Christian community was praised by Saad Hariri. The Shia, are a majority and with an important role in politics due to Amal and Hezbollah, would become a minority if the Palestinians are accepted and naturalized; Lebanon will become a largely Sunni country, as is Turkey and the Golf Arab countries. In this case, other countries use Lebanon, once again to satisfy their own vision of the region by transforming Lebanon into an American-Saudi trade to make it up to the Sunnis for their big loss in Iraq.

While something should be done to meet the human rights needs of the Palestinian refugees, Lebanon's identity will be swept off once the Palestinians are allowed to establish themselves in the country. The conditions they live in pushes them to the terrorists' hands and cause the whole region a lot of problems. The solution is to offer them the right to work in Lebanon, especially now that the Syrians workers are gone and the Lebanese would rarely accept to work on the construction sites, gas stations and other jobs considered as too humiliating for the Lebanese pride.

Eventually, poverty and oppression leads to extremism. No wonder many Palestinians dream of becoming a suicide bomber!

There should be a separate fund to assist the Palestinians in improving life conditions in Lebanon. With the UN is assisting in educating them within the camps, the Lebanese government can allow them to build more buildings within the camps, to make their own community which would strive on its own workforce and through its own built institutions; but everything should happen within the camps not outside them in order to be accepted by the Lebanese who still remember how their loved ones were slaughtered by the Palestinian militias in the civil war.

Acknowledging the need of accommodating the Palestinians human rights, Minister of Labor Tarrad Hamadeh said that his ministry "alleviated restrictions which prevent resident Palestinian refugees to work in most jobs."

What is clear is the fact that the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis has been marked by the Occident and Lebanon's political class will play a major role in the game, or will face the consequences of looking the other side.