Home >> South Asia >> Thailand & Myanmar  Email  Print A Possible North Korea – Myanmar alliance? Pranamita Baruah - 8/8/2009 At a time when there has been an increasing concern in the international community over the clandestine nuclear programme in North Korea and Iran, reports regarding the possible involvement of Myanmar’s military junta in developing a nuclear arsenal are disturbing. Factors like the recent aborted voyage of a North Korean ship – the Kang Nam I- allegedly carrying a cargo of Scud-type missiles and heading towards Myanmar, the arrest of two Japanese nationals and a North Korean in June, 2009, this year for allegedly trying to export a magnetic measuring device to Myanmar that could be used to develop missiles, recent photographs of massive tunnels in Myanmar, and the alleged reports of a secret military pact between Myanmar and North Korea, have raised alarm bells that there have been a nuclear relationship between North Korea and Myanmar. The possibility that Myanmar too might be aspiring to go nuclear, possibly with the help of North Korea, is sending shivers down through the spine of its neighbouring countries, including India.
Reports on this issue started hitting the international media during US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Thailand in July to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting. During her visit, Clinton voiced concern over the issue of close North Korean-Myanmar collaboration in the pursuit of offensive weapons, including nuclear armament. At that time, not many were ready to accept her view on the issue, though. However, a recent report published in the Bangkok Post’s Spectrum magazine as well as the Sydney Morning Herald, clearly suggested that Myanmar has enlisted Pyongyang help in building its own nuclear bomb within the next five years. It definitely substantiated Clinton’s suspicion.
The report was the result of a two-year investigation into Myanmar’s nuclear ambitions by Desmond Ball, a regional security expert at the Australian National University and Phil Thornton, a Thai-based Australian journalist. The report, primarily based on the testimony of two Myanmar defectors, including one army officer and a book keeper for a trading company with close links to the military, claimed that Myanmar is excavating uranium in ten locations and has two uranium plants in operation to refine uranium into ‘yellowcake,’ the fissile material for nuclear weapons. The report further reveals that for the production of nuclear weapons, Myanmar has already planned a plutonium reprocessing plant in Naung Laing, in the country’s north. The plant reportedly runs parallel to a civil nuclear reactor being built at another site by Russia.
Nuclear Alliance?
While explaining Myanmar’s possible motive behind its nuclear ambition, the report reveals that it was basically the inability of the junta to compete with neighbouring Thailand on conventional weapons which ultimately compelled Myanmar to acquire nuclear capability to ‘play power like North Korea’. However, many analysts are of the view that the junta aspires to become nuclear for the dual purpose of international prestige and strategic deterrence. It has also been pointed out that the junta, under growing pressure to democratize, may seek a nuclear deterrent to any foreign moves to force regime change. It remains undoubtedly true that just like Pyongyang, Rangoon too would like to have a nuclear bomb so that they can challenge the Americans and the rest of the world.
Reports regarding Myanmar’s nuclear ambition started circulating since 1998 when just after the back to back nuclear tests carried out by India and Pakistan, the junta introduced an Atomic Energy Law (June 8, 1998). However, Myanmar’s interest in developing civil nuclear expertise came to be known in February 2001 when its decades long conventional military relationship with Russia was expanded to cover the civil nuclear field. In September 2001, the Myanmar government reportedly informed the IAEA about its plan to acquire a nuclear research reactor. But the IAEA inspectors, after their visit to the state, concluded that Myanmar did not have the required safety standards. Still, Myanmar went ahead with its exploratory talks with Russia on the subject, on which Moscow responded positively.
Myanmar popped up on the N-radar once again after 9/11 when the US troops reportedly found evidence of contacts between some retired and serving nuclear scientists of Pakistan and Al-Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden. Two of the scientists, reportedly associates of Pakistani atomic renegade, A Q Khan, later on escaped to Myanmar and the junta allegedly offered them refuge there. Although there was no further reliable news about them, it was believed by many that Myanmar was embarking on a nuclear-research project with the help of those two Pakistani scientists, along with the scientists from Russia. A few years later, the junta had reportedly launched a nuclear-related ‘Ayelar Project’ headed by the two Pakistani scientists.
The steady airborne trade between Pakistan and North Korea in missiles and nuclear parts remains an undeniable fact. However, in 2007, it was reported that a transport aircraft that flew from North Korea to Myanmar flied a flight path across India to Pakistan. This was a sign that the missile trade between Pakistan and North Korea, at times, might have been a triangular trade, including Myanmar.
In January 2002, Myanmar government entered into talks with Russia to build a nuclear research reactor which would be used ‘for peaceful purposes’. However, due to the economic hurdles faced by the junta and the Russian reluctance to finalize the deal with Myanmar until it signs the safeguards agreement with the IAEA, no progress could be made on the nuclear project in the next five years. Ultimately in May 2007, Myanmar signed a MoU with Russian atomic energy agency to establish a nuclear studies center in Myanmar, build a 10-megawatt nuclear research reactor for peaceful purposes and train several hundred technicians in its operation.
Myanmar’s links with Iran too have come to light, as the Myanmar’s defectors alleged that the junta has sent uranium deposits from the mines to Iran (along with Russia) for evaluation.
Just a few months ago, videos and photographs of a mysterious ‘Operation Tortoise Shell’ made its way into Thailand. The evidence provided by these sources implicated that North Korea was helping Myanmar constructing around 800 tunnels during 2003-2006.
Myanmar broke off its diplomatic relations with North Korea in 1983 after Pyongyang’s alleged involvement in the bombing of the Martyr’s mausoleum in Yangon in an attempt to assassinate visiting South Korean President, Chun Doo-hwan. However, common interests brought the two secretive nations back together. A number of army delegations travelled to Pyongyang just after the two sides’ resumption of formal diplomatic relations in 2007. Soon, the personalities involved in the visits indicated that Myanmar is probably seeking cooperation from the North not only in procuring weapons, but also in establishing air defense weaponry, missiles, rockets or artillery production facilities. At present there has been a speculation that in return of its military cooperation, North Korea might have been provided with uranium by resource-rich Myanmar.
According to the two defectors’ report, although diplomatic relations between Myanmar and North Korea resumed only recently, cooperation between them began in earnest in September 2000 when a MoU was signed by Burma’s Lieutenant General Thein Hla and North Korean major General Kim Chan Su. During 2001-2002, four more contracts were signed. The ‘official’ agreements between the two countries covered nuclear related activities at two sites and involved North Korea’s assistance in installing, maintaining, training, and supplying equipment at the uranium refining and enrichment plant at Thabike Kyin. At the second reactor site at Naung Laing, the North Koreans agreed to help with the construction of an underground facility and a nuclear reactor. The report further reveals that in recent times, Pyongyang has forged closer ties with the junta by selling arms and missile technology to the latter. Recently, intelligence had found that junta had begun dealing with the Namchongang Trading Company of North Korea for missile and nuclear parts.
Is the allegation credible?
Despite the concern over Myanmar’s possible nuclear ambition, regional intelligence sources seem to be sceptical about the state’s capability to do so. It is so, primarily because verification of stories coming out of Myanmar is quite difficult, as the junta has banned international media. The shocking revelations of the recent report is based on the statements made by the two defectors who may be trying to boost their own importance in the hope of getting themselves resettled to a third country. After all, in various earlier occasions, the junta tried to put out misinformation to cover what it is really doing. Above all, Myanmar is a party to the NPT, and under a safeguards agreement with the IAEA, it is obligated to let the UN watchdog know at least six months ahead of operating a nuclear facility. At the recent ARF meet, Myanmar Foreign Minister Nyan Win assured the ASEAN members that his government would abide by the UN Security Council’s recent resolution on North Korea that prohibits any cooperation with Pyongyang in the nuclear sector. Still, the sceptics are willing to concede that the Myanmar regime is not trustworthy.
Reactions
Reactions on Myanmar’s possible nuclear ambition are somewhat mixed. While during her visit to Thailand, Hillary Clinton stated that the possibility of Pyongyang transferring nuclear technology to Myanmar will be a threat to the U.S. allies in the region, and a ‘complete and irreversible denuclearization is the only viable path for North Korea’, on 3 August, Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, Philip Crowley, stated that over time, the U.S. would like to clarify with Myanmar more precisely the nature of its military cooperation with North Korea.
While reacting to the U.S. view on the issue, Russia states that there is little cause of concern over a possible nuclear link between the two rogue states in Asia. Russian officials further states that the nuclear cooperation between Russia and Myanmar is not in conflict with the NPT or IAEA requirements, and Russia will definitely move ahead with its nuclear project in Myanmar.
Myanmar going nuclear will impact on India’s foreign policy in relation to this region. Although initially both the states had difference on Myanmar’s democratization and Aung San Suu Kyi issue since 2000, under its new ‘Look East’ policy, India has decided to develop cordial relations with the junta and ‘not to interfere in its internal affairs’. In the last few years, both the states have been actively collaborating on weeding out insurgents along the Indo-Myanmar border and developing trade links between the two states.
A nuclear weapon free Myanmar is important for India’s own security as well as for keeping the credibility of the NPT regime intact. A nuclear Myanmar might trigger a nuclear arms race in the region. India has a chance to play an important leadership role in avoiding the occurrence of such a scenario by dealing prudently with the junta.
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