Home >> Middle East >> Arab World

     Email   Print 

Would Russia Step in to Enforce Peace in Syria and the Middle East?

Lorna Thomas - 9/19/2011

Since mid March 2011 more than 2,200 people have reportedly been killed in pro-democracy demonstrations against the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

On 1 September, 2011 U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Thursday called for new sanctions on Syria's energy sector in an effort to help stem the violence.

Aiming to increase pressure on the Syrian government, the EU, which purchases 95% of Syria's crude exports, announced a ban on oil imports on 2 September 2011. The move was criticised by Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who said it would “bring no good”.

Russia Today reported that on 4 September 2011 at a press conference with Brazilian counterpart Antonio Patriota following their meeting in Moscow, Mr Lavrov said that the BRICS nations - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa - will not allow a repetition of the Libyan scenario against Syria.


“We strongly believe it is unacceptable to instigate the Syrian opposition to continue boycotting suggestions to start a dialogue,” Sergey Lavrov said.“This is a call for a repeat of the Libyan scenario. The BRICS nations will not allow this to happen. The UN Security Council will not tolerate how its resolutions are being implemented.”
“Syria might hide behind BRICS wall”, Russia Today, 4 September, 2011,
http://rt.com/news/syria-brics-lavrov-russia/

According to an AP report on September 7, 2011 at a meeting of Arab finance chiefs, Mohammad Jleilati said Syria would seek economic bonds with Asian and other countries, listing Russia and China as traditionally friendly to Syria.

The NY Times reported that tens of thousands of Syrians took to the streets on 9 September to call for international protection.
“I can say that half of the Syrian people will accept international intervention to finish the bloodshed in our country,” said Hani, a protester from al-Midan neighborhood in Damascus.
“Syrian Protesters Call for International Protection From President Assad’s Crackdown”
New York Times, Ada Bakri, September 9, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/world/middleeast/10syria.html?_r=1

According to Russia Today when speaking to the Euronews TV Channel after the Global Policy Forum in Yaroslavl, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev referred to it being in Russia's interests for peace in Syria:


“I believe the resolutions we would approve to send a strong message to the Syrian regime should in fact be addressed to both sides.


Things aren’t just black and white there, and the anti-government protesters in Syria are not followers of some refined European models of democracy. There are different groups within the opposition. Some of them are, to put it straight, extremists, and some might even be called terrorists.


The situation is not that simple, and we have to take into account the balance of different forces and interests. Russia may support certain moves, but only if they don’t boil down to the one-sided condemnation of the government and President Assad. We should send a strong message calling on all the conflicting parties to come to the negotiation table, start the talks and stop the bloodshed. This is also in Russia’s interests because Russia has always been Syria’s friend, and our countries have close economic and political ties. That’s why we’ll continue to look for solutions to the situation in Syria.”


“Libyan scenario in Syria unacceptable – Russian president”, Russia Today, 9 September, 2011, http://rt.com/politics/medvedev-uronews-interview-ukraine-159/
Bouthaina Shaaban, a political adviser to the Syrian President is to visit Moscow on 12 September 2011 to discuss the crisis in Syria.












RUSSIA - “PRESERVING THE PEACE” AND “ENFORCING THE PEACE”




In June 10, 2010 in an interview with two French journalists screened on Russia Today , Prime Minister Vladimir Putin spoke about the Russia-Georgia conflict saying “Two years ago President Saakashvili launched a criminal operation which resulted in numerous casualties. Russia had to protect the lives of its peacekeepers and of the South Ossetian people. We were forced, I'd like to emphasize that, forced to use our armed forces for this purpose.”

August 2011 marked the third anniversary of the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict and Russia's forceful intervention. Russian and Georgian media - Russia Today, Echo Moskvy radio and First Caucasus Television (Kanal PIK) - interviewed Russian President Dmitry Medvedev shortly before the anniversary.

Referring to the situation in Libya and Syria President Medvedev was asked when he considered it acceptable to step in and what his rationale was for “deciding whether it’s okay to launch a peace-enforcement mission?”
“Interview with Dmitry Medvedev on Kanal PIK” transcript
http://pik.tv/en/news/story/16072-interview-with-dmitry-medvedev-on-kanal-pik

Regarding the situation in Syria, President Medvedev stated:

“Unfortunately, people are dying in Syria in grave numbers, and that arouses our deepest concerns. Therefore, in my discussions with President Assad during our personal conversations and in our correspondence I have been advocating one principal idea: that he should immediately launch reforms, reconcile with the opposition, restore civil accord, and start developing a modern state. Should he fail to do that, he is in for a grim fate, and we will eventually have to take some decisions on Syria, too. Naturally, we have been watching developments very attentively. The situation is changing, and so are our objectives.”

Later in the month, on 29 August, 2011, the Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov delivered a message to President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus from Mr Medvedev.


“During the discussion that took place on the situation in Syria, Russia’s main emphasis was on the need for all sides to cease all violence immediately and take urgent concrete steps to implement the reforms announced by Syria’s leadership. Russia also stressed that the opposition should accept to take part in the dialogue the authorities propose, as this is the only possible way of restoring civil peace and harmony and setting Syria on a steady path towards democratic transformation.”
“Dmitry Medvedev sent President of Syria Bashar al-Assad a message,August 29, 2011”, President of Russia website”
http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/2749

In 2008 President Assad met with Dmitry Medvedev and supported Russia's “peace-keeping” actions in South Ossetia, also expressing willingness to host Russian missiles in Syria in response to the US missile shield in Europe.




The Syrian President said: “We understand what is behind Russia's position … We believe this is a response to Georgian provocation. We support Moscow in this and are against any attempts to blacken Russia.”

See:

“Syria: we’ll host Russian missile system”

, Russia Today
http://rt.com/news/syria-well-host-russian-missile-system/

In May 2010 President Medvedev visited Syria, the first time a Russian head of state had done so since 1917. The President also visited Patriarch Ignatius IV of Antioch and All the East who said during a meeting when he was presented with the Order of Friendship.:


“You say that everything you do is for the sake of preserving peace. Your visit today demonstrates that Russia continues to seek peace, joining efforts with Syria in particular. When we say the word ‘peace,’ we mean peace for everyone who lives in this nation and throughout the region. We never say that peace is only for ourselves. In striving for peace, we implore God that everyone may think about the desirability and importance of achieving peace. God is the creator of all humankind.
I do not recall the wars started by Russia, but we know from history that all invaders that tried to attack the Russian state always met their grave there.”
“Meeting with Patriarch Ignatius IV of Antioch and All The East”, President of Russia website, May 11, 2010,
http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/179


SYRIA PORT OF TARTUS OF STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE TO RUSSIA


Aside from Russia's arms contracts with Syria, Russia has an important strategic interest in Syria, i.e. the port of Tartus, its only base in the Mediterranean Sea. Tartus gives it an important permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean, the safeguarding of which may influence in its current decisions as well as in the future.

In 2008, a month after the Russia-Georgia conflict, Russia announced it would renovate Tartus for use by the Russian fleet. In 2006 the Russian magazine Kommersant had reported that Moscow was planning to turn the Syrian port into a permanent naval base.


”For the first time since the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia will create its own military base outside former Soviet borders, which will allow Moscow to conduct its own political game in the Middle East.”


“Russia building naval base in Syria - report” “Russian magazine reports Moscow planning to turn Syrian port into permanent naval base; Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson denies report”,Ynet News, Vera Yadidya,06.02.06
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3258131,00.html


See:
“Syrian-Russian naval cooperation grows”, USA Today, Sam F. Ghattas, 9/12/2008
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-09-12-1451539888_x.htm

In 2010 modernization of the base was projected to be completed in 2012 after which it could serve as a base for guided-missile cruisers and aircraft carriers.



THE SIGNIFICANCE OF RUSSIAN PRESENCE IN TARTUS INCLUDING TO ISRAEL


In 2009 Defense Online carried an article stating:


“The prospect of Russia reactivating its cold war naval bases in Syria's Tartus and Latakia ports, could have a most dramatic strategic impact. High-profile air defense missiles and surveillance systems deployment around any Russian-manned installations in Syrian ports, might also shift the military balance to Israel's disadvantage, or even threaten a clash between Israel and Russian forces, as happened during the later stages of the so-called War of Attrition in 1970, along the Suez Canal.”
“Russian Mediterranean Naval Build-Up Challenges NATO Sixth Fleet Domination”, David Eshel, Defense Update, International Online Defense Magazine, 2009
http://defense-update.com/analysis/analysis_091207_navy.htm


In 2009 UPI reported that Tartus was seen as a means of Russia being able “to reassert its influence in the Mediterranean and the Arab world” and that in August 2007 Admiral Vladimir Masorin, commander of the Russian navy said, “the Mediterranean is very important strategically”.


According to the report:

“The Israeli media has speculated that a Russian presence in Syria would handcuff the Israeli militarily in any future conflict over the Golan Heights or Lebanon.”
“Russia eyes Med naval base in Syria”, UPI, July 21, 2009
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2009/07/21/Russia-eyes-Med-naval-base-in-Syria/UPI-87351248190500/

Sami Moubayed, editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria wrote in “Syria asks Russia to lean on Israel”, Asia Times Online that during an official visit to Syria in May 2010, Damascus called on President Medvedev to get the US to jump-start peace talks on restoring the Golan Heights to Syria.

Also of concern to Israel was Russia's sale of P-800 Yakhont missiles to Syria.

In 2010 Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asking Vladimir Putin to stop the sale of the supersonic cruise missiles to Syria which it considers as posing a threat to its naval vessels in the Mediterranean. The missiles can be launched from land, sea, air, and submarines and are difficult to detect.

According to a report by Ria Novosti in 2010:


“Russian-made mobile anti-ship missile systems sold to Syria could be used to protect a Russian naval supply and maintenance site near Syria's Mediterranean port of Tartus.”


“The Yakhont missile has a range of 300 kilometers, the capacity to carry a 200-kilogram warhead and the unique ability of being able to cruise several meters above the water surface, making it difficult to detect and intercept.”
“Yakhont missiles could protect Russian naval base in Syria – analyst”, Ria Novosti, 20.9.2010
http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20100920/160652217.html?id=160659830

(Some analysts have noted that the US 6th fleet is also stationed in the Mediterranean within range of the missiles.)

Officials have said the Russian Navy regards Syria as a vital base for operations in the Mediterranean and surrounding regions. They said Moscow has been training the Syrian Navy as part of the strategic arrangement.


"According to the Russian Navy, the naval base in Syria significantly boosts Russia's operational capability in the region because the warships based there are capable of reaching the Red Sea through the Suez Canal and the Atlantic through the Strait of Gibraltar in a matter of days," the Moscow-based RIA Novosti news agency said.
“Russia modernizing Syria ports for its warships,” World Tribune, 15 April, 2010
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/me_syria0315_04_15.asp

As we see U.S. and British influence and power continuing to decline, with financial woes leading to cutbacks in defense spending, could Russia increasingly step in to play a “peace-keeping” or “peace-enforcement” role in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world, including from the Mediterranean.

But as the world faces increasingly troubles would Russia's "peace-enforcing" role bring peace in the world, particularly if Russia comes under future strong military leadership?